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Fire Weather Risk Shifts Eastward as Red Flag Warnings Reach Illinois, Michigan

The National Weather Service has posted 22 Red Flag Warnings across seven states — Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Michigan, Utah and Washington — as the footprint of the nation’s fire weather threat shifts overnight from yesterday’s six-state alignment.

The warning count has eased from 27 to 22 over the past 24 hours, but the geography has changed: Arizona and Oregon have dropped off the list, while Illinois, Michigan and Utah are now included for the first time in this stretch. Washington remains the most heavily flagged state, with Red Flag Warnings covering the Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, Western Columbia Basin, Methow Valley, the Colville Reservation, and the Eastern Columbia Basin/Palouse/Spokane area, among other zones.

In Idaho, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1 p.m. to 8 p.m. MDT this afternoon for Fire Weather Zone 427, covering the Goose Creek and Raft River Valley, the Southern Sawtooth National Forest and Twin Falls BLM land south of the Snake River. The National Weather Service warns that scattered thunderstorms could bring lightning capable of igniting new fires, with critical conditions expected to develop Tuesday.

Alaska continues to carry some of the most detailed warnings in the country. In the Lower Kobuk Valley, a warning runs from 10 a.m. AKDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening, with west winds of 5 to 15 mph gusting to 25 mph, humidity as low as 42%, and highs in the upper 70s. Farther north, the Northern Seward Peninsula, Upper Kobuk Valleys and Lower Koyukuk Valley face the same timing window, with humidity dropping as low as 38% and highs reaching the lower 80s — unusually warm and dry conditions for the region.

The addition of Illinois and Michigan marks a notable eastward expansion of fire weather concern, with affected areas including Lake, Porter, Newton and Jasper counties. The National Weather Service has not detailed the specific triggers for those warnings in the same depth as the Western zones, but their inclusion signals that dry, wind-driven fire risk is no longer confined to the interior West and Alaska.

Forecasters note that a Red Flag Warning means critical fire weather conditions are either occurring or expected imminently, based on thresholds such as relative humidity at or below 15% combined with sustained winds — while a Fire Weather Watch signals that such conditions could develop and may later be upgraded. Residents in affected zones, including areas near Spokane weather and Boise weather, should avoid outdoor burning and report any smoke or new fire starts immediately. The National Weather Service says it will continue to reassess zones through the week as thunderstorm activity and wind patterns evolve.