Minneapolis–St. Paul opens Independence Day under partly sunny skies and a muggy high near 85°F, with the National Weather Service calling for a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing after 2 PM CT — so plan your parade, fun run, or lake morning now, and keep an eye on the radar before tonight’s fireworks.
Today’s Setup
Forecasters say this morning is clear of any weather impacts for holiday parades or fun runs around the Chain of Lakes or downtown St. Paul. Dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s will keep it feeling sticky as temperatures climb into the low-to-mid 80s under partly cloudy skies, with a light east wind around 5 mph.
Best Window To Be Outside
The NWS Area Forecast Discussion is clear on timing: get outdoor plans wrapped up before early afternoon. Isolated storms are expected to fire up and last roughly 2 PM to 10 PM CT, so a picnic, cookout, or trip to Lake Harriet or Como Park is best scheduled for the morning and early afternoon.
Storm Risk This Afternoon
A couple of this afternoon’s storms could approach severe levels, but forecasters say the main threats are lightning and heavy rain rather than widespread severe weather — most of the metro should actually stay dry, with activity staying isolated to scattered. Overnight lows fall to around 66°F with a lingering, diminishing storm chance before things clear out.
What To Wear Or Bring
Pack a packable rain jacket or compact travel umbrella if you’re headed downtown for fireworks or to the St. Paul Saints game against the Buffalo Bisons at CHS Field tonight — tailgate early and be ready to duck under cover if thunder rolls through. Storms hold off until afternoon, so it’s still a fine week to pick up 4th of July decorations for the backyard.
Games, Concerts & Weekend Plans
Looking ahead, the Minnesota Twins host the Cleveland Guardians at Target Field on July 7 — a Minnesota Twins jersey or Minnesota Twins fitted cap makes a solid gameday grab, and Get tickets on SeatGeek if you want to catch it live. Wynonna Judd & Melissa Etheridge play The Ledge Amphitheater on July 5, and Death Cab for Cutie brings the “I Built You A Tower” tour to the Armory on July 10 — pick up a Death Cab for Cutie t-shirt if you’re going, and Find tickets on StubHub for either show. Further out, the Lakefront Music Fest hits Lakefront Park on July 11.
Next Few Days
Once today’s storms clear, the pattern turns quiet and comfortably warm. Sunday brings a 20% chance of early showers before a mostly sunny afternoon near 84°F, and Sunday night stays mostly clear near 66°F. The next chance for storms doesn’t arrive until late Tuesday into Wednesday — a great stretch for mowing, grilling, or getting out on one of the metro’s lakes. Got an outdoor project waiting on a dry window? The DEWALT Drill & Impact Driver Combo Kit is discounted at Lowe’s this week, and anglers eyeing the calm midweek stretch might like the Plano Double-Sided Tackle Box, on sale now.
With storms rumbling through tonight, it’s a good night to stay in for dinner — a slow cooker chili, beef stew, or a big pot of soup in the enameled cast iron Dutch oven or a programmable slow cooker hits the spot while the thunder passes. Need ingredients? You can order groceries on Amazon and have everything for tonight’s dinner delivered to your door.
