Tampa Bay is waking up to a mostly sunny Sunday morning, but with a high near 91°F and scattered thunderstorms expected after 2 PM ET, your window for outdoor plans is right now — use it.
Today’s Setup
The National Weather Service forecasts the sea breeze boundary to push 20 to 40 miles inland this afternoon, triggering scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by 2 PM ET. Chance of precipitation is 50%, with a quarter to half an inch of new rainfall possible. Heat index values could reach as high as 97°F. Tonight stays active — storm chances climb to 68–70% before midnight, with another half to three-quarters of an inch possible through 2 AM ET.
The Weather Prediction Center has extended a marginal risk of excessive rainfall into Florida today. If you see standing water on Hillsborough or Pinellas County roadways, don’t drive through it.
Best Window To Be Outside
This morning through noon is your golden window. Clearwater Beach, the Pinellas Trail, or a round at your favorite course are all doable before the storms build. If you’re eyeing a summer gear upgrade on the links, there’s a Callaway Big Bertha 23 Fairway Wood deal worth checking out — and plenty more outdoor gear deals to prep for the season. For any outdoor activity, keep an insulated tumbler 30oz loaded with ice water — 91°F with Gulf humidity is no joke — and a hydration running vest is smart for anything lasting more than 30 minutes.
Memorial Day — Better Odds
Good news for Monday: storm chances drop to just 30% and hold off until after 3 PM ET, with a high again near 91°F. That’s a solid morning-through-early-afternoon window for cookouts at Fort De Soto Park, a beach day at St. Pete Beach, or a cruise on Tampa Bay. One caveat: the National Weather Service warns that any storm developing Monday or Tuesday could carry 40 to 50 mph gusts, since slightly drier air aloft can punch up individual storm intensity. Stay weather-aware if you’re out on the water.
Events This Week
Dave Matthews Band plays the MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre at the FL State Fairgrounds on Tuesday, May 26 — an outdoor venue, so keep one eye on the afternoon sky. Grab a Dave Matthews Band t-shirt and Find tickets on StubHub before they sell out.
On May 30, Shinedown brings the Dance, Kid, Dance Act II tour to Benchmark International Arena. Rep the show with a Shinedown hat or Shinedown t-shirt.
The Tampa Bay Rays host the Los Angeles Angels at Tropicana Field on May 29 — that dome is a storm-season lifesaver. Get tickets on SeatGeek and show up in your Official team gear on Fanatics.
Too Hot to Cook? Eat Cold Tonight
Skip the stove on a 91°F night. Cold Thai noodle salad, a build-your-own wrap bar, or smoothie bowls are all crowd-pleasers with zero heat. A high-powered blender makes frozen fruit bowls effortless and keeps the kitchen cool. Need ingredients? You can order groceries on Amazon and have everything delivered before dinner.
Next Few Days
- Monday (Memorial Day): Mostly sunny, 91°F high, storms not until after 3 PM ET — the best outdoor window of the long weekend.
- Tuesday–Wednesday: Fewer storms overall, but drier air aloft means any that develop could pack 40–50 mph gusts.
- Mid-to-late next week: The National Weather Service signals increasing moisture and storm coverage as a weather system develops over the Florida peninsula. The summer wet season is settling in.
